【新刊速递】《世界政治》（WP），Vol.74，No.2，2022｜国政学人

　　

　　期刊简介

　　

　　《世界政治》（World Politics）创刊于1948年，是享誉国际的政治科学季刊，内容涵盖国际关系和政治科学的各个领域，其主编是Deborah J. Yashar。该期刊欢迎的投稿类型有具有理论和实证贡献的研究类文章，以及有关国际关系和比较政治问题的评论性文章。2020年该期刊的影响因子为3.444，在94种国际关系类期刊中位列第18名，在182种政治科学类期刊中位列第44名。

　　本期目录

　　1. 地缘政治的公众舆论与贸易：理论和证据

　　Public Opinion on Geopolitics and Trade: Theory and Evidence

　　2. 羸弱国家内的外群体偏见：1891-1892年俄罗斯饥荒中的宗教与群体识别性

　　Explaining Out-Group Bias in Weak States: Religion and Legibility in the 1891/1892 Russian Famine

　　3. 当同族性失败时

　　When Coethnicity Fails

　　4. 外国占领和对国际合作的支持：丹麦的实地证据

　　Foreign Occupation and Support for International Cooperation: Evidence from Denmark

　　01

　　地缘政治的公众舆论与贸易：理论和证据

　　题目：Public Opinion on Geopolitics and Trade: Theory and Evidence

　　作者：Allison Carnegie，哥伦比亚大学政治学系副教授，研究领域为国际关系、国际组织和国际政治经济学；Nikhar Gaikwad，哥伦比亚大学政治学系助理教授，研究领域为国际关系和比较政治经济学。

　　摘要：本文系统地考察了安全关切在塑造大众对国际经济交流的偏好中发挥的作用。作者利用在美国和印度进行的多项调查实验，并基于观察结果和案例研究证据，探究地缘政治如何影响选民对国际贸易的看法。研究表明，受访者对贸易对象的偏好始终倾向于盟友，而非对手，而且偏好程度较大。这一偏好的成因在于他们对对手的负面先验信念（prior beliefs），且他们担忧贸易关系会增强对方的军事实力，这一担忧进一步强化了上述先验信念。然而，作者也发现，相当一部分公众认为贸易可以带来和平，而贸易的这一诱导因素可以消除公众对与对手开展贸易的畏忌。本文有助于阐释受公众舆论制约的政府何时以及为何在冲突的阴影下寻求经济合作。

　　This article provides a systematic examination of the role of security considerations in shaping mass preferences over international economic exchange. The authors employ multiple survey experiments conducted in the United States and India, along with observational and case study evidence, to investigate how geopolitics affects voters’ views of international trade. Their research shows that respondents consistently—and by large margins—prefer trading with allies over adversaries. Negative prior beliefs about adversaries, amplified by concerns that trade will bolster the partner’s military, account for this preference. Yet the authors also find that a significant proportion of the public believes that trade can lead to peace and that the peace-inducing aspects of trade can cause voters to overcome their aversion to trade with adversaries. This article helps explain when and why governments constrained by public opinion pursue economic cooperation in the shadow of conflict.

　　02

　　羸弱国家内的外群体偏见：1891-1892年俄罗斯饥荒中的宗教与群体识别性

　　题目：Explaining Out-Group Bias in Weak States: Religion and Legibility in the 1891/1892 Russian Famine

　　作者：Volha Charnysh，麻省理工学院政治学系助理教授。

　　摘要：选举性激励和外群体偏见是解释国家分配过程中存在种族偏见的机制。本文对这一现象提出了一种新颖且互补的解释，即不同种族群体的识别性差异导致国家分配存在种族偏见。本文认为，国家的资源较少地分配给那些无法对其实施信息收集或征税的群体。上述论点得到了1891-1892年俄罗斯帝国在饥荒过程中提供援助的原始数据的支持。定性和定量分析表明，穆斯林人口聚集地的饥荒死亡率较高，获国家公共援助较少。历史上，帝俄政府官员难以了解有关通过宗教手段统治的穆斯林群体的情况，在穆斯林地区征收的财政收入也较低。帝俄官员不太指望向穆斯林地区征粮和征税以补偿国家援助，因此官员更有可能拒绝向穆斯林地区提供援助。而在那些国家能够了解情况和获取更多税收的少数民族地区，国家救济并未体现出差异性。

　　Two dominant explanations for ethnic bias in distributional outcomes are electoral incentives and out-group prejudice. This article proposes a novel and complementary explanation for the phenomenon: variation in legibility across ethnic groups. The author argues that states will allocate fewer resources to groups from which they cannot gather accurate information or collect taxes. The argument is supported by original data on state aid from the 1891/1892 famine in the Russian Empire. Qualitative and quantitative analyses show that districts with a larger Muslim population experienced higher famine mortality and received less generous public assistance. The Muslims, historically ruled via religious intermediaries, were less legible to state officials and generated lower fiscal revenues. State officials could not count on the repayment of food loans or collect tax arrears from Muslim communes, so they were more likely to withhold aid. State relief did not vary with the presence of other minorities that were more legible and generated more revenue.

　　03

　　当同族性失败时

　　标题：When Coethnicity Fails

　　作者：Giuliana Pardelli 纽约大学阿布扎比分校政治学副教授；Alexander Kustov 北卡大学夏洛特分校政治学副教授。

　　摘要：为什么少数族裔和种族比例较高的社区公共产品供给较差？许多研究都强调了种族多样性阻碍了公共产品的提供，但其中的因果关系问题仍然难以得到解释。本文作者通过追溯当代种族人口和公共产品供给的根源，将两者间的因果关系与不平衡的国家历史扩张联系起来，为这个问题的解答提供了新的思路。作者以巴西的新历史数据为重点，表明过去治理能力水平较低的较偏远城市更容易被逃亡的奴隶选择作为永久定居点。受制于此，今天这些城市的公共产品供给更差，非洲裔的比例也更大。这些研究结果突出了种族人口结构和公共产品供给之间关系的普遍内生性。由于没有考虑到与背景有关的历史因素，过往关于任何特定人口组成的社会成本和效益的研究结果可能缺乏有效性。

　　Why do communities with larger shares of ethnic and racial minorities have worse public goods provision? Many studies have emphasized the role of diversity in hindering public outcomes, but the question of causality remains elusive. The authors contribute to this debate by tracing the roots of both contemporary racial demography and public goods provision to the uneven historical expansion of the state. Focusing on new historical data from Brazil, the authors show that more remote municipalities with lower levels of state capacity in the past were more frequently selected by escaped slaves to serve as permanent settlements. Consequently, such municipalities have worse public services and larger shares of Afro-descendants today. These results highlight the pervasive endogeneity of the relationship between ethnic demography and public outcomes. The failure to account for context-dependent historical confounders raises concerns about the validity of previous findings regarding the social costs and benefits of any particular demographic composition.

　　04

　　外国占领和对国际合作的支持：丹麦的实地证据

　　标题：Foreign Occupation and Support for International Cooperation: Evidence from Denmark

　　作者：Lasse Aaskoven，南丹麦大学 （University of Southern Denmark，SDU）政治科学与公共管理系助理教授。

　　摘要：有关“历史上的国家压迫如何影响后续政治结果”的研究日益丰富，但鲜有文献关注到外国占领期间的暴力行为是否影响被占领国对国际合作的支持。本文通过分析1972年丹麦就加入欧洲经济共同体（European Economic Community）举行全民公投的案例来探讨这一问题。当时该组织由德国主导。分析显示，在第二次世界大战德国占领丹麦期间（1940-1945），遭受更多德国施加的暴力的丹麦城市在此次公投中投反对票的比率更高。这种结果似乎是因涉及丹麦抵抗运动的丹麦极左政党获得了更多支持而产生的，此类政党在反对欧洲经济共同体的运动中积极利用反德情绪。分析结果表明，外国施加的暴力可能是民众支持国际合作的重大障碍，政党在将历史性不满转化为民众的政治行为方面发挥了重要作用。

　　A growing literature investigates how historical state repression affects later political outcomes, but little attention has been given to whether violence during foreign occupation affects support for international cooperation. This article investigates this issue by analyzing the 1972 Danish referendum on membership in the European Economic Community (EEC)—an organization seen at the time as being dominated by Germany. The analysis shows that municipalities that experienced more German-inflicted violence during the German occupation of Denmark (1940-1945) in World War II had a higher rate of no votes in this referendum. This effect seems to have worked through increased support for Danish far-left parties that were associated with the Danish resistance movement and that actively used anti-German sentiment in their campaigns against EEC membership. The results suggest that foreign-inflicted violence can be a substantial hindrance for popular support for international cooperation and that political parties play an important role in translating historical grievances into mass political behavior.

　　编译 | 胡富钦 曾庆鸣 董黛 林怡娉

　　审校 | 杨佳霖 赖永祯

　　排版 | 屈媛媛 苏伊文

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