莫迪的代价：印度“废币”得与失

　　文/周一骏

　　1951年，二十世纪福克斯发行了一部黑白电影《地球停转之日》，影片中一个强大的外星来客，用外科手术式的手段帮助人类改正恶习。2016年11月8日，印度真实地经历了电影中的场景，总理莫迪晚间8点发表电视讲话，突然宣布废除正在流通的面值为500和1000卢比的纸币，当日午夜12点钟之后，这两种纸币将变成“废纸”。

　　In 1951, 20th Century Fox released a movie called The Day the Earth Stood Still, in which a powerful alien attempts to help humans correct bad habits through surgical means. On November 8, 2016, India experienced a similar situation when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500 and 1,000 rupee bills would no longer circulate. When midnight struck, the country’s two largest bills transformed into waste paper.

　　这些天，整个印度大陆正处在停转的时刻，每人每日4000卢比的新币兑换量，让所有国民倍受煎熬，甚至驻印的各国使团、通讯社和外资企业也都走向街头，加入长达数小时的排队换钞之旅，体味躺枪的无奈。

　　The development seems to have paralyzed the entire country for days. Citizens suffered due to the limit of 4,000 rupees of new bills per person per day. Even envoys, news agencies and foreign enterprises in India joined the long lines outside banks across the country with helplessness.

　　莫迪的反对者们，也正利用民众的负面情绪，掀起一浪高过一浪的质疑。但情绪化无助于做出冷静的判断，抛开宣泄，厘清以下几点基本事实，将有助于我们从更具建设性的视角，观察整个事件。

　　Capitalizing on the situation, Modi’s rivals are using the negative public sentiment to strengthen opposition. But emotions won’t lead to ideal resolutions. Clarifying the basics will help to understand the incident from a more constructive perspective.

　　莫迪的代价

　　The Price Paid by Modi

　　在一个现金为王的社会，旧版500和1000面额卢比共计占印度货币流通总量的86%（据印度央行此前公布的数据，共达14万亿卢比，约合2170亿美元）。

　　In a society where the vast majority of transactions are still performed with cash, 500 and 1000 rupee denomination bills amounted to 14 trillion rupees, or around 217 billion USD, accounting for 86% of the currency circulating in India, according to data released by the Central Bank of India.

　　△ 印度旧版500面额卢比。

　　推行如此伤筋动骨的政策，莫迪必须得到广泛而坚定的支持，所有私藏不当现金收入的人都将面临一个两难选择：要么眼睁睁看着这些财富作废，要么明晃晃向政府展示保险柜。此时，莫迪个人乃至其九族身上，任何一点微小的经济污点，都将点燃将他自己置于死地的导火索。

　　To implement such a drastic policy, Modi needed extensive and solid support. Those holding illegal cash will face a dilemma: do nothing and watch the money lose value or report their holdings to the government. The situation is so precarious that even the smallest of improperly acquired gains by people in Modi’s inner circle, especially Modi himself, would lead to political destruction.

　　此外，我们也可以想象，在核心阁僚中，莫迪设置了多么精彩的一手“道德绑架”大戏——在莫迪的大义凌然面前，核心阁僚们只能选择支持，因为任何反对或犹豫，都会被解读成“心里有鬼”。这期间，又有多少贪腐官员体会了“哑巴吃黄连，有苦说不出”的政治讽刺剧。

　　Modi has constructed the appearance of high moral ground, but ministers must loyally endorse Modi’s every move or risk a “guilty” label. During this period, perhaps corrupt officials will be left to suffer in silence “like an idiot eating a bitter herb.”

　　国民的代价

　　The Price Paid by Citizens

　　不论这次新政未来的收益如何深远，客观而言，印度国民在这次新政中付出了代价。这样的代价分为可以避免的和无法避免的两类。

　　Regardless of any potential future benefits, Indians objectively paid a price for the policy. The costs include both those that could have been avoided and those that could not have been.

　　在可以避免的代价清单中，有一项是印度政府必须自省的：换发货币耗资巨大，费用最终将由国民承担，但由于政府的行政效率，新版货币的防伪措施与旧币相比没有质的提升，这意味着不久以后的将来，印度国民极可能再承担一次换币的成本。而讽刺的是，由于新币是突然曝光，熟悉程度低且防伪技术未更新，市场上已经出现了2000卢比的假币。

　　Among the avoidable costs: The people will pay for the actual price of the currency transformation. Due to lacking governmental administrative efficiency, anti-counterfeiting measures have not improved significantly with the new currency. So another version could be released soon. Because the new notes were issued suddenly, the public has not enough time to be familiar with them. Lawbreakers take advantage of this to make counterfeit. The fake new 2000 rupees bills of have already emerged.

　　△ 11月30日，在印度首都新德里，市民在市中心的一处ATM机前排队取现。

　　而另一些代价，则不能对莫迪政府求全责备。比如有人指责银行系统的ATM应提前做好软硬件升级，以减轻对民众的影响。执行层给出的解释是情有可原的——由于废除旧版的计划需要保密，因此如果事前大规模升级ATM会暴露这项计划，因此，这样的阵痛，是一个国家成长中必经的坎坷。

　　Some problems are not the Modi administration’s fault. For example, some have argued that ATMs should have software and hardware upgrades to mitigate the impact on the public. The government’s reasoning on this issue is sound: The plan to abolish the old notes had to be kept confidential, and a large-scale upgrade of ATMs would have exposed the plan. Some growing pains are unavoidable during the growth of a country.

　　最高法院的态度

　　Attitude of the Supreme Court

　　印度司法高度独立，在这个以司法为中心的宪政国度，一个政治家，无论他多么具有个人魅力，都不能为所欲为。在印度的行政效率遭质疑的同时，这个国家对根本国策的审慎却一直令人尊敬。

　　India’s judiciary is highly independent. In a country constructed around the rule of law, politicians cannot do whatever they please no matter how charismatic they are. India’s administrative efficiency has been questioned, but the government’s prudence about fundamental policies has always been respected.

　　莫迪的货币新政并没有越过最高法院的监管，相反，他正经受着考验。莫迪政府已向最高法院提交了一份补充说明，呼吁其支持。而反对者们同样用司法程序，合理地表达着他们的担忧：由律师Sangam Lal Pandey提起的“公共利益诉讼”认为，莫迪颁布的新政，没有给普通大众提供足够的过渡时间，这将导致民众面临许多困难和不适；Vivek Narayan Sharma律师的诉讼请求则认为，这一政策“侵犯了公民的生活和贸易权利，以及其他权利”。

　　Modi’s move did not miss the supervision from Supreme Court in any way. Actually, the new policy is being scrutinized by the Supreme Court. The Modi administration submitted a supplementary note to the Supreme Court to request its support. Opponents used the same judicial procedure to express their concerns: Attorney Sangam Lal Pandey mentioned during “public interest litigation” that Modi’s new deal did not provide enough time for the public to transition smoothly, causing many to face difficulties and discomfort; lawyer Vivek Narayan Sharma argued that the policy “violated the life and trade rights and other rights of citizens.”

　　正如一位尼赫鲁大学的助理教授所言：“在宪法设定的规则内，每一方充分表达自己的观点，并经过协商达成一致，这不正是一个现代社会中最勇敢高尚的行为吗？”

　　An assistant professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University expressed his opinion thusly: “Every party can fully express their views within the constitution, and discuss until an agreement is reached. Isn’t this the reflection of a most noble modern society?”

　　苍蝇的对策与老虎的对策

　　Strategies against “Flies and Tigers”

　　莫迪政府的货币新政规定：居民将价值25万卢比（约合2.5万人民币）的旧币存到银行时，政府不予追问，但超过这个限额后，如果居民的存储与合理收入范围不符，则将面临高达200%的惩罚性税收。

　　The Modi administration’s new provisions stipulate that the government shall not question residents about amounts less than 250,000 rupees when old bills are exchanged. When someone does surpass this limit, however, if the person’s income statement does not align with the volume of funds, he or she could face a 200 percent punitive tax.

　　无数历史证明，一旦政府出台一项政策，充满智慧的民间，总能精确地找到并穷尽其所有的漏洞，坏人和贪官也不例外。

　　History has shown countless times that after a government issues a policy, the people always quickly discover every loophole. Criminals and corrupt officials are not exceptions.

　　△ 废币政策颁布后，印度黄金店铺前排起了长龙，直至深夜黄金依然交投活跃。

　　政策颁布之后，第一个被发现的bug是购买黄金，这样既能变现纸币，又不必支付国家的高额惩罚性税收。众人涌入金店，一些珠宝店在午夜之后依然营业。市场立刻对此作出反应，印度黄金零售价在短短10多个小时内暴涨了15%—20%，有些地方价格甚至上涨至2294美元/盎司。

　　After the launch of the policy, the first loophole to emerge was avoidance by holding gold. If it is kept in gold, sums much larger than the threshold can be cashed in for bills without worry about the punitive taxes. So many poured into gold and jewelry shops that stayed open late into the night. The market immediately responded: India’s retail gold price jumped 15 to 20 percent in just over 10 hours, and prices rose to as high as $2294 per ounce in some places.

　　但反对货币新政的批评者认为，这些政策虽然对“苍蝇级别”的贪官作用显著，却对“老虎级别”的贪官们影响不大，因为他们早已用现金购买了大量土地，或是在瑞士银行开设账户。

　　Critics of the move argue that these policies would only snare the corrupt officials who are “flies,” but not the “tigers,” who have already converted the cash into real estate or moved it to Swiss bank accounts.

　　国家的长远利益与民众认知力的极限

　　India’s Long-term Interests vs. Short-term Pains

　　任何政治家，其实都在做一个危险的游戏，就是在国家的长远利益与当时民众认知力的极限之间，寻求一个微妙的平衡。

　　Every politician walks the tightrope between the long-term interests of the country and the current sentiments of the people.

　　莫迪走出了勇敢的一步，此次货币新政，短期看可以打击来路不明的黑钱，清理市场上的假币，实现反腐和反恐的目的，更重要的是，长远来看，将规范税收，促进移动支付，推动电子商务。但这个在远方田野与眼前苟且之间走钢丝的游戏，需要莫迪把握好节奏并展现出足够的政治智慧。

　　Modi took the courageous step of reforming India’s currency system via an attempt to expose black money quickly and reduce counterfeit money in the market, cracking down on rampant corruption and terrorism, and more importantly, in the long run, promoting stability of tax revenues, mobile payments and e-commerce. But to win the dangerous struggle between distant targets and immediate interests, Modi must feel the rhythm of the move and demonstrate political shrewdness.

　　无论结果如何，我个人都对莫迪总理致以敬意，对于那些勇敢的改革者，我们都应投以更多的宽容与鼓励。正如电影中描述的那样，地球停转之日，正是一个社会驱动新一轮自转的开始。

　　No matter the outcome, I personally commend Prime Minister Modi. We should show more tolerance and encourage to these brave reformers. As described in The Day the Earth Stood Still, when the planet stops spinning, a new social driver will emerge.

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