《黑寡妇》表明，保护影院窗口期的排他性才是正道

　　文：NATO     翻译：Keping Qiu邱可平

　　编者按

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　　漫威大片《黑寡妇》在北美上映已超一周，但过去的这个周末，影院端票房仅收获了2625万美元，比首周末跌幅67%，目前该片北美票房累计达1.32亿美元，创MCU最差次周末跌幅。对此美国电影院业主协会NATO将《黑寡妇》的票房暴跌归咎于迪士尼选择在上映同日上线流媒体的策略。

　　事实上，由于该片在流媒体平台的同时上线，为影片盗版提供了便利，目前有多个网址提供了盗版链接，有的还是高清版甚至是4K版。作为全美影院业主的代言人，指出影院票房的极速下跌，完全是零窗口期导致，因此提出影院排片排他性才是前进的方向。

　　“艾维电影”刊发此文，对于院网同步发行希望对国内电影市场有参考和借鉴意义。

　　核心观点：院网同步放映削弱了强劲的早期放映票房以及其他所有窗口期的持久表现；影院的放映和同步付费点播（PVOD）以及盗版，这三者的自相残食减少了整体收入。

　　（洛杉矶 - 2021 年 7 月 18 日）《黑寡妇》凭着出色的影评、良好的口碑以及火爆的点映和首映当天的总收入，分别达到了1320 万美元和3950 万美元。然而，第二天竟然意外下跌 41%，首周票房低于预期。紧接着第二个周末票房出现惊人的崩塌。

　　

　　为什么这样一部制作精良、广受欢迎、备受期待的电影表现如此不佳呢？

　　尽管有人声称：这种疫情时代推出的同步发行策略，对迪士尼来说是成功的。但是《黑寡妇》的票房走势恰恰证明了排他性的影院发行意味着能在电影的每个生命周期内为所有利益相关者带来更多的收入。

　　根据漫威影片以及其他疫情时期的成功影片，比如 《速9》和《寂静之地 2 》的首映日与首映周末的比率，《黑寡妇》的开画应该在 9200万 -1亿美元之间。根据点映收入，与同类影片相比，《黑寡妇》的开盘也可能做到9700万 美元到 1.3 亿美元不等。

　　早期的分析指出流媒体线上（ Premiere Access） 的收入为 6000 万美元，并将其与美国国内影院票房的 8000 万美元进行比较，由此认为《黑寡妇》是成功的，尤其是迪士尼还保留了家庭发行收入。其实不然。大约15%的收入来自于各种平台，消费者是通过这些平台访问Disney+。

　　然而 Premiere Access 的收入不是新增加的，而是从更为传统的 PVOD 窗口中拉出来的，而PVOD已经不再是一种选项。同步的流媒体收入实际上摊薄了后续家庭娱乐收入。Disney+覆盖了中国大陆以外92%的市场，同步上映后的家庭娱乐方面收入至少折半，这个账算下来赢多还是亏多有待进一步观察。

　　此外，6000 万美元是全球总额，应该与 1.58 亿美元的影院放映全球票房总额进行比较。

　　美国每个家庭的平均人口数为 2.37 人。人们可以假设面向家庭的Disney+ 的家庭用户数目会更大。到底多少？Disney+ 订阅者之间有多少人在共享密码？结合损失的影院收入以及被放弃的传统 PVOD 收入，这些问题的答案呼之欲出，在电影的整个生命周期中，同步发行会减少迪士尼从每一位受众得到的收入。

　　盗版无疑进一步影响了《黑寡妇》的表现，并且将影响影片未来在尚未放映的国际市场上的表现。

　　崭新的数字版在 Disney+ 上发布后几分钟内即可获得。 截至 7 月 12 日， 《黑寡妇》是当周被盗版下载得最凶猛的电影。

　　（https://torrentfreak.com/most-pirated-movies-of-2021/）

　　它已经在互联网上无数的非法流媒体网站上泛滥了。

　　这也是所有同步发行影片所面临的情况（《神奇女侠 1984》、《哥斯拉大战大战金刚》、《黑白魔女库伊拉》、《真人快打：毁灭》）。 《速9》 和《寂静之地 2 》没有发生这种情况。扪心问一问，各家因同步发行所造成的盗版损失了多少钱？

　　《黑寡妇》令人失望的反常表现，正在迅速地回答因迪士尼发布有限的首周末流媒体数据所引发的许多问题。最重要的答案是，同步发行是疫情时代的产物，应该与疫情本身“同归于尽”，留给历史。

　　 

　　关于NATO

　　NATO （National Association of Theater Owners) 全国影院业主协会是世界上最大的影院放映商贸易组织，代表美国所有 50 个州的 35,000 多块电影银幕，以及全球 101 个国家/地区的 32,000 多块银幕。

　　NATO总部位于华盛顿特区，在加州洛杉矶设有第二个办事处。NATO帮助影院业影响联邦政策的制定，并与电影发行商在共同关心的所有领域合作，从新技术到立法、营销以及第一修正案问题。www.natoonline.org@NATOCinemas

　　

　　英文原文：

　　BLACK WIDOW SHOWS THEATRICAL EXCLUSIVITY IS THE WAY FORWARD

　　Strong opening and long-term performance in all windows undercut by simultaneous release; cannibalization of theatrical and later PVOD, and piracy reduce overall revenue

　　 

　　(Los Angeles - 18 July 2021) Black Widow’s excellent reviews, positive word of mouth, and strong previews and opening day total ($13.2 million/$39.5 million) led to a surprising 41% second day drop, a weaker than expected opening weekend, and a stunning second weekend collapse in theatrical revenues. Why did such a well-made, well-received, highly anticipated movie underperform?

　　 

　　Despite assertions that this pandemic-era improvised release strategy was a success for Disney and the simultaneous release model, it demonstrates that an exclusive theatrical release means more revenue for all stakeholders in every cycle of the movie’s life.

　　 

　　d on comparable Marvel s, and other successful pandemic-era s like F9 and A Quiet Place 2 opening day to weekend ratios, Black Widow should have opened to anywhere from $92-$100 million. d on preview revenue, compared to the same s, Black Widow could have opened to anywhere from $97 to $130 million.

　　 

　　Early analysis pointed at the $60 million in Premiere Access revenue and compared it to the domestic theatrical of $80 million and declared it a success, especially because Disney keeps every dollar of home release. It does not. Approximately 15% of revenue goes to the various platforms through which consumers access Disney+.

　　 

　　It ignores that Premiere Access revenue is not new-found money, but was pulled forward from a more traditional PVOD window, which is no longer an option.

　　 

　　Further, the $60 million is the global total and should be compared to the $158 million theatrical total.

　　 

　　The average number of people per household in the U.S. is 2.37. One can assume the family-oriented Disney+ household is larger. How much? How much password sharing is there among Disney+ subscribers? Combined with the lost theatrical revenue and forgone traditional PVOD revenue, the answer to these questions will show that simultaneous release costs Disney money in revenue per viewer over the life of the film.

　　 

　　Piracy no doubt further affected Black Widow’s performance, and will affect its future performance in international markets where it has yet to open.

　　 

　　Pristine digital copies became available within minutes of release on Disney+. Black Widow was the most torrented movie for the week ending July 12.（https://torrentfreak.com/most-pirated-movies-of-2021/）

　　It is also available on myriad illegal streaming sites all over the Internet.

　　 

　　This was also the case for all simultaneous releases (Wonder Woman 1984, Godzilla vs Kong, Cruella, Mortal Kombat). This did not happen for F9 or A Quiet Place 2. How much money did everyone lose to simultaneous release piracy?

　　 

　　The many questions raised by Disney’s limited release of streaming data opening weekend are being rapidly answered by Black Widow’s disappointing and anomalous performance.

　　 

　　The most important answer is that simultaneous release is a pandemic-era artifact that should be left to history with the pandemic itself.

　　 

　　ABOUT NATOThe National Association of Theatre Owners is the largest exhibition trade organization in the world, representing more than 35,000 movie screens in all 50 states, and more than 32,000 additional screens in 101 countries worldwide.

　　 

　　Headquartered in Washington, D.C., with a second office in Los Angeles, California, NATO represents its members in the heart of the nation’s capital as well as the center of the entertainment industry. From these vantage points, NATO helps exhibition influence federal policy-making and work with movie distributors on all areas of mutual concern, from new technologies to legislation, marketing, and First Amendment issues. www.natoonline.org @NATOCinemas